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EducationJune 3, 2026· 16 min read

Fix & Flip Deal Analysis: A Step-by-Step Guide to Evaluating Flips

Walk through a complete flip analysis from ARV estimation to profit projection. Learn how to account for hard money costs, holding periods, and selling expenses. Includes case study with real Texas numbers.

The Anatomy of a Flip

Every fix-and-flip deal has four cost phases. Miss any one of them and your profit projection is wrong.

1.Acquisition Costs — purchase price, closing costs, inspection, appraisal

2.Rehab Costs — materials, labor, permits, contingency

3.Holding Costs — loan interest, insurance, taxes, utilities, lawn care

4.Selling Costs — agent commission, closing costs, staging, photography

Your profit is simply: ARV - (Acquisition + Rehab + Holding + Selling) = Profit

Key Concept
Successful flippers know their numbers to the dollar BEFORE they make an offer. The Texas Signals Fix & Flip Analyzer calculates all four phases automatically — but you need to understand what goes into each one.

Phase 1: Acquisition

BiggerPockets — How To Analyze a Fix and Flip to Find Out EXACTLY How Much To Pay

Purchase Price

This is your offer price — ideally calculated using the 70% rule (see our guide: The 70% Rule Explained). For a typical Texas flip:

Pre-foreclosure: 10-30% below market value

Auction: 20-40% below market value

Tax delinquent: 15-35% below market value

Closing Costs (Buy Side)

Budget 1-2% of purchase price for:

Title insurance: ~$1,500-2,500

Escrow fees: ~$500-1,000

Recording fees: ~$100-300

Wire fees: ~$25-50

Inspection: ~$350-500

Hard Money Loan Costs

Most flippers use hard money lending for acquisition:

Loan-to-Value: 70-85% of purchase price (some lend on ARV)

Interest Rate: 10-14% (interest-only monthly payments)

Points: 1-3 points upfront (1 point = 1% of loan amount)

Example: $150K purchase at 80% LTV = $120K loan. At 2 points = $2,400 origination fee. At 12% = $1,200/month interest.

Your cash needed at closing: Down payment ($30K) + closing costs ($2,500) + points ($2,400) = $34,900


Phase 2: Rehab

Getting Accurate Estimates

The rehab budget is where most new flippers go wrong. Here are benchmarks for Texas markets:

Cosmetic Rehab ($10-25/sqft):

Interior paint: $2-4/sqft

Flooring (LVP): $3-5/sqft installed

Kitchen update (no layout change): $8,000-15,000

Bathroom update: $3,000-6,000 each

Fixtures and hardware: $1,000-3,000

Landscaping cleanup: $1,000-3,000

Moderate Rehab ($25-50/sqft):

Everything above, plus:

Kitchen remodel (new cabinets, counters, appliances): $15,000-30,000

Bathroom remodel: $6,000-12,000 each

HVAC replacement: $4,000-8,000

Water heater: $1,000-2,000

Roof repair (not replacement): $2,000-5,000

Heavy Rehab ($50-100/sqft):

Everything above, plus:

Roof replacement: $8,000-15,000

Foundation repair: $5,000-20,000

Plumbing replumb: $5,000-12,000

Electrical rewire: $8,000-15,000

Structural modifications: $5,000-25,000

Pro Tip
Always add a 10-15% contingency to your rehab budget. Hidden problems (mold behind walls, termite damage, asbestos) are common in Texas properties built before 1990. A $40,000 budget should really be underwritten as $44,000-46,000.

Permits

Texas permitting requirements vary by city and scope of work. Most cosmetic rehabs do not require permits. Structural, electrical, plumbing, and HVAC work typically does. Budget $500-2,000 for permits and plan for 1-4 weeks of processing time.


Phase 3: Holding Costs

Jerry Norton — Watch Me Analyze a Deal To Flip LIVE

This is the "silent killer" of flip profits. Every month you hold the property, these costs accumulate:

Monthly Holding Costs (Typical Texas Flip):

Hard money interest: $800-1,500/month (depending on loan amount and rate)

Property taxes: $200-500/month (property tax amount / 12)

Insurance: $100-200/month (builder's risk policy)

Utilities: $150-300/month (electricity, water, gas — yes, you pay these during rehab)

Lawn/HOA: $50-200/month

Total: $1,300-2,700/month

Timeline Matters Enormously

A 5-month flip vs an 8-month flip can mean $3,900-8,100 in extra holding costs. This is pure profit lost to delays.

Typical Timeline:

Closing + contractor mobilization: 2-3 weeks

Rehab (cosmetic): 4-8 weeks

Rehab (moderate): 8-14 weeks

Rehab (heavy): 14-24 weeks

Listing, marketing, showings: 2-4 weeks

Under contract to close: 3-5 weeks

A realistic cosmetic flip takes 4-5 months. A moderate rehab takes 5-7 months. A heavy rehab takes 7-10+ months.

Watch Out
In Texas, the hottest listing months are March-June. If your flip hits the market in November-January, expect longer days on market and potentially a lower sale price. Time your rehab completion accordingly.

Phase 4: Selling

Agent Commission

The biggest selling expense. Standard in Texas is 5-6% of sale price, split between listing and buyer's agent.

On a $250,000 sale: $12,500-15,000

Some flippers list FSBO (For Sale By Owner) to save the listing side (2.5-3%). But experienced investors know that agent exposure often gets a higher sale price that more than offsets the commission.

Closing Costs (Sell Side)

Budget 1.5-2.5% of sale price for:

Title insurance (owner's policy for buyer): $1,500-3,000

Escrow fees: $500-1,000

Survey: $400-600

Home warranty (often offered to buyers): $400-600

Transfer taxes / recording: $100-300

Staging and Photography

Professional staging: $1,500-3,000/month. Professional photography: $200-500. Virtual staging: $100-300. These costs are often worth it — staged homes sell faster and for more.


Case Study: Real Texas Flip Numbers

Property: 3BR/2BA Ranch in New Braunfels, TX (Comal County)

Acquisition:

Purchase Price: $180,000 (pre-foreclosure, found on Texas Signals)

Hard Money: 80% LTV = $144,000 loan at 12%, 2 points

Down Payment: $36,000

Closing Costs: $3,200

Origination Points: $2,880

Cash to Close: $42,080

Rehab ($35/sqft on 1,400 sqft = $49,000):

Kitchen remodel: $18,000

Two bathroom remodels: $10,000

Flooring throughout: $7,000

Paint interior/exterior: $5,000

Fixtures, hardware, landscaping: $4,000

Contingency (10%): $4,900

Total Rehab: $48,900

Holding (6 months):

Hard money interest: $1,440/month x 6 = $8,640

Taxes: $375/month x 6 = $2,250

Insurance: $150/month x 6 = $900

Utilities: $200/month x 6 = $1,200

Total Holding: $12,990

Selling (ARV: $285,000):

Agent commission (6%): $17,100

Closing costs (2%): $5,700

Staging + photos: $2,000

Total Selling: $24,800

Results:

Total Costs: $180,000 + $48,900 + $12,990 + $24,800 + $3,200 + $2,880 = $272,770

Sale Price: $285,000

Net Profit: $12,230

Cash Invested: $42,080 + $48,900 = $90,980

Cash ROI: 13.4%

Annualized ROI: 26.9% (6-month hold)

Is $12,230 profit worth 6 months of work? For many investors, the answer depends on volume. If you can run 3-4 of these simultaneously, that is $36,000-48,000 in profit over 6 months. Scale is the key.

Pro Tip
Run these exact numbers in the Texas Signals Fix & Flip Analyzer. Enter the purchase price, rehab budget, ARV, loan terms, and timeline — the calculator shows your profit, ROI, annualized ROI, and a full cost breakdown.

When to Walk Away

Not every deal is a good deal. Walk away when:

The MAO does not work at 70% — you cannot force a deal to work by raising the percentage

Repair estimates are uncertain — if you cannot get a contractor to commit to a number, the risk is too high

The market is softening — check days on market for recent sales in the area. If DOM is increasing, your ARV may be optimistic

Holding costs will eat the profit — a 12-month hold on hard money can turn a $20K profit into a $5K profit

You do not have enough reserves — always keep 3-6 months of holding costs in reserve beyond your rehab budget


Your Flip Analysis Checklist

1.Get 3 recent comps (closed within 90 days) to establish ARV

2.Walk the property with a contractor and get a written bid

3.Add 10-15% contingency to the rehab budget

4.Calculate MAO using the 70% rule

5.Verify your hard money terms (rate, points, LTV)

6.Estimate holding period realistically (add 1-2 months to your best guess)

7.Account for ALL selling costs (commission + closing + staging)

8.Run the full analysis in the Texas Signals Fix & Flip Analyzer

9.If profit is less than $15,000 on a single-family flip — seriously consider passing

10.If ROI is less than 15% — the risk may not be worth the reward

Head to Investment Calculators to run your next deal through the analyzer, or browse Texas Signals' pre-foreclosure and auction listings to find properties below market value.

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